黄奇帆：新常态下中国经济尤需防风险
<p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">今天，国家统计局公布了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2014</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">年中国经济运行数据，大家最关心的</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">GDP</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2014</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">年的增速为</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">7.4%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，可以说，这一数据进一步印证了“中国经济由高速增长转为中高速增长”的“新常态”。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">那么，如何适应这种“新常态”下的经济增长和发展？</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">20</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">日，在重庆市级两会上，重庆市市长黄奇帆有一番解读，认为应当着重防范和应对中高速发展中的经济风险。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">以下是黄奇帆录音整理</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">。为方便阅读，岛叔给大家加了小标题。长，但绝对值得耐心阅读。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">经济靠什么“稳增长”？</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">在中国经济发展步入新常态的背景下，中央提出“稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险”的宏观调控举措。我理解，经济发展由</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">以上的高速增长转向</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">7%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">左右的中高速增长，这是新常态的显著标志之一。大家要明白，我国仍长期处于社会主义初级阶段，发展是第一要务，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">“稳增长”是前提，而“促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险”又是“稳增长”的手段。没有这四个手段，发展动力就会缺失，“稳增长”就稳不住了。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">比如抓改革，去年我们搞<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">基础设施领域的</strong></span><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">PPP</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">改革</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，吸引了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1300</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿的国内外资金；搞国有企业集团五个路径改革，吸引了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿资金。这样，就吸引了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2300</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿。去年重庆经济发展那么快，基础设施照样上，政府性债务又削减了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿，风险更加可控，这就是改革的动力。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">又如抓开放，重庆这些年着力抓内陆开放高地建设，以大通道、大通关、大平台为依托，特别是<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">开通渝新欧国际铁路大通道，形成了江北国际机场空港、寸滩水港、团结村铁路枢纽站三个国家级一类口岸，在旁边配置了三个保税区</strong>。这样，使得我们的进出口总额从原来的</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">60</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">多亿美元变成了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">955</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿美元，六年时间翻了四番，这也是一个巨大动力。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">再如调结构，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">重庆本来是老工业基地，“傻大黑粗”的东西很多。通过近年来的持续努力，我们形成了电子信息和汽车等战略性支柱产业。</strong>去年全市工业总产值</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万亿，电子信息和汽车各占</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">5000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿，都分别增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">20%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，其他支柱产业都增长了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">。在这个过程中，我们着重抓了产业集群，汽车产业方面，我们集聚了国内外</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">个品牌商，同时形成了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">家零部件配套企业。电子信息产业方面，我们集聚了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">多个品牌商和代工商，零部件企业有</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">860</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">多家。还有重庆的服务业，去年金融业和新型服务贸易增长快于一般服务业，这也是调结构的一个体现。总之，没有调结构，稳增长也是一句空话，调结构也是一种动力。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">还有惠民生，保障和改善民生既是发展的目的，也是发展的动力。这些年，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">重庆的学有所教、劳有所得、病有所医、老有所养、住有所居“五有”目标和生态环保等民生支出占比一直保持在</strong></span><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">50%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">以</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">上，持续实施了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">22</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">件民生实事，今年还将按照重点民生实事滚动实施机制的要求，重点办好</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">25</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">件民生实事，这不但可以解决一大批群众反映急迫的问题，也会通过惠民生扩内需，促进消费升级，为经济发展提供源源不断的动力。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">那么防风险呢？虽然重庆经济近年来持续平稳健康发展，但仍然要时时敲响防风险的警钟。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">中国经济的风险何在？</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">我国经济运行中的风险，主要是金融风险、债务风险、房地产风险以及产能过剩风险等。</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">比方说<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">防金融风险，宏观上就是要把握好融资结构</strong>。应<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">大幅提高工商企业面向多层次资本市场的直接融资比重，引导商业银行加大对实体经济的信贷支持力度，规范和约束非银行金融机构融资行为</strong>。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">如果一个地方的发展，</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">70%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">、</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">80%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">的资金都靠银行贷款，那就说明这个地方的金融有问题，搞得不活。一个地方的信托、租赁、小贷、抵押、担保等非银行金融机构得不到发展，高利贷、典当行、“老鼠会”等就会盛行，容易导致金融“三乱”。当然，如果一个地方</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">50%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">、</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">60%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">的融资都是靠利息比银行高几个点的非银行金融机构，又会导致这个地方企业融资成本整体很高。</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">要更好地解决融资问题，关键是要<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">努力推动直接融资市场、直接金融市场，通过股票市场、银行间市场、企业债券等从资本市场直接融资</strong>。去年，重庆政府帮助企业筹集到一千四五百亿的低利息、低成本的资金，都是从资本市场上来的，是直接融资。今年，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">我们提出新增</strong></span><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">6000</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿元融资，要做到</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">25%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">来自直接融资市场，</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">45%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">来自银行，</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">30%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">来自非银行金融机构</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">。以前，我们的直接融资大体只有</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">左右，希望通过加大直接融资的力度，能够形成银行、直接融资市场、非银行金融机构</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">45</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">：</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">30:25</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">的融资比例。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">经济生活中，大家可能没有注意到产能过剩的风险，我恰恰认为这是最重要的风险。</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">本质上讲，市场经济通过充分竞争才能有效益，这就必然会导致产能过剩，但产能过剩也有个度的问题。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">比方说，一个企业研究开发出一个新产品，这就会形成一个新的市场。先做的人一马当先，独占鳌头，获得效益最大化，这就是创新驱动的魅力所在。旁边人看到先行者效益很高，群起而上都模仿，之后逐渐会达到供求平衡。供求平衡了还要竞争，就会有个后来者居上的概念。后来者本事比你大，人才结构比你好，资本更密集，就会把老企业淘汰出局。这时候，市场就会产生过剩。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">产能过剩有个经济学逻辑：如果行业过剩</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">—</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">20%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">的时候会产生优胜劣汰，属于良性竞争；一旦过剩超过</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">20%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，比如全行业过剩</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">30%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">、</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">40%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">甚至</span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">50%</span></span></strong><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，几乎所有企业，都会泥沙俱下，大家通通赔本，形成行业性亏损。现在中国差不多十来个行业，钢铁、电解铝、玻璃、有色金属、水泥等等都是如此。</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">比如钢铁行业，市场每年需求</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">6</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿吨，产能却达到</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿吨，严重过剩，行业平均利润率在</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">3%</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">以下，企业普遍亏损。更严重的是，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">实体经济产能过剩还会连累金融业，造成银行坏账，增加诱发金融危机甚至经济危机的风险。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">从这个意义上说，防止产能过剩，既是宏观经济问题，也是微观经济问题，每个行业、每个企业概不能外，传统工业、房地产业、高科技产业、金融业都是如此，都可能在市场竞争中出现过剩。俗话说：“千做万做赔本生意别做”，任何时候都要保持清醒头脑，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">任何一家企业都要关注自身行业产能是否过剩</strong>。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">县长和企业家都不要碰过剩产业</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">这些年，重庆经济之所以表现良好，重要的原因之一，就是按照中央要求，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">坚决不碰产能过剩行业</strong>。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">工业方面，</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">8</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">年前，全国每年煤炭产量</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">20</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿吨，重庆有</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">4000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万吨。</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">8</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">年间，我们严格控制煤炭行业新增产能，在全国产量达到</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">50</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿吨时，我们还是</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">4000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万吨。</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">年，全国钢铁产量</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿吨，重庆是</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">600</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万吨，现在全国</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">10</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿吨产能，重庆仍然是</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">600</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万吨。由于没有跟风而上，产能过剩行业占比较小，我们工业面临的压力就较小，效益自然就好。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">在房地产领域，要防止产能过剩，重在把握好六个比例关系：</span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">一是城市建设用地。</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">按照城镇化规律，每</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万城市人口配置一平方公里建设用地，就能基本平衡。重庆主城</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万人口，城市规模也就是</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">平方公里。有些城市只有</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">50</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万人，却搞了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">100</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">平方公里，规模过剩就容易变成鬼城、空城、死城<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></strong></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">二是商品住宅。</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">一般是人均</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">40</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">平方米，</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1000</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万人就造</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">4</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">亿平方米住宅，造得再多，房子卖不掉，房产商破产，银行贷款收不回来，就会连累整体经济。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">三是商铺</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，原则上每</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万元商业销售值要配备</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">平方米商铺。如果一个城市只有四五十亿商业零售额，却建了</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">100</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万平米商铺，每平方米商铺零售额不到一万元，肯定赔本。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">四是写字楼</span></strong><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">，大体也是</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">万元</span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;">GDP</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">配一平方米的比例，不能造得太多。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; box-sizing: border-box !important;"> </span></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></strong></p>**** Hidden Message *****<p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', Î￠èíÑÅoú, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.5em; text-indent: 32px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></span></p><p></p> 好像是民营企业家座谈会上的讲话 公文写作百法例讲好像是民营企业家座谈会上的讲话 原则上每2万元商业销售值要配备1平方米商铺。如果一个城市只有四五十亿商业零售额，却建了100万平米商铺，每平方米商铺零售额不到一万元，肯定赔本。 在房地产领域，要防止产能过剩，重在把握好六个比例关系：一是城市建设用地。按照城镇化规律，每1万城市人口配置一平方公里建设用地，就能基本平衡。重庆主城1000万人口，城市规模也就是1000平方公里。有些城市只有50万人，却搞了100平方公里，规模过剩就容易变成鬼城、空城、死城。 原则上每2万元商业销售值要配备1平方米商铺。如果一个城市只有四五十亿商业零售额，却建了100万平米商铺，每平方米商铺零售额不到一万元，肯定赔本。 黄奇帆讲话总能戳到痛点 按照城镇化规律，每1万城市人口配置一平方公里建设用地，就能基本平衡。重庆主城1000万人口，城市规模也就是1000平方公里。有些城市只有50万人，却搞了100平方公里，规模过剩就容易变成鬼城、空城、死城。
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